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It’s been six months or roughly 180 days since bitcoin reached an all-time high at $69K per unit on November 10, 2021, and bitcoin’s USD value is down 45% from that point. Typically after bitcoin’s price tops, the bear market that follows leads to a large 80% or more decline in value. However, because the recent price top resembles the growth from April 2013 to November 2013, bitcoin’s current bearish decline may not be so large this time around.

An 80% Drop From Bitcoin’s High Would Lead to $13,800 per Unit

Bitcoin markets have been bearish over the last six months after reaching the crypto asset’s all-time high (ATH) at $69K last year. While prices are dreary for many, it’s made people wonder how long the downward cycle will last.

Recent Bitcoin Bull Run and Prior Run-up Data Suggests a Softer Bear Market Is in the Cards

Using today’s bitcoin (BTC) exchange rates against the U.S. dollar indicates that the leading crypto asset has lost 45% so far. Usually, when BTC peaks, the price drops significantly during long-term bearish cycles and after a few specific tops, BTC has dropped more than 80% lower than the high.

For instance, in April 2013, BTC reached an all-time price high at $259 per unit but then it slid to $50 a unit, losing approximately 82.6% in value. From November 2013’s all-time high of $1,163 per unit to January 2016, BTC’s value slid by 86.9%. If bitcoin’s USD value was to shed 80% from the recent $69K high six months ago, the price would drop to a low of $13,800 per unit.

The Softer Bear Market Theory

However, there’s a chance that the current bear cycle may be shorter and less impactful this time around. While BTC has seen at least three 80% or more drops, it’s seen a lot more 32-51% drops. One reason bitcoin’s bottom may not be so harsh is because the crypto asset’s peak was not that huge. In fact, the last bitcoin bull run was longer and saw a much smaller percentage gain than previous all-time highs. The crypto advocate and Youtuber ‘Colin Talks Crypto’ discussed the softer bear market theory on May 1.

Recent Bitcoin Bull Run and Prior Run-up Data Suggests a Softer Bear Market Is in the Cards

From the August 17, 2012 peak ($16) to the April 10, 2013 peak ($259), BTC gained 1,518.75% between that timeframe. Following that cycle, between the April 10, 2013 top and the November 2013 peak, bitcoin gained 349.03%. Then from the November 2013 peak to December 2017 peak, BTC jumped 1,590.97%.

Recent Bitcoin Bull Run and Prior Run-up Data Suggests a Softer Bear Market Is in the Cards

This time around, however, the December 2017 peak to the November 2021 top was only 250.85%. It’s been the lowest percentage gain of all the major bull runs in the crypto asset’s lifetime. The lower jump higher could lead to a softer bitcoin bear market that’s much less drastic than an 80% or more plunge.

In addition to the smaller ATH, the run-up to the 2021 ATH was over 400 days. The bitcoin bull run prior (2017) only lasted 200 days or roughly half the time. This means while the brunt of the current bear market may be softer in a sense, it may last a lot longer than previous bear cycles.

What do you think about the possibility of a softer bear market that’s less harsh than the previous 80% plunges bitcoin experienced in the past? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

11 thoughts on “Recent Bitcoin Bull Run and Prior Run-up Data Suggests a Softer Bear Market Is in the Cards

  1. There are a lot of features that give crypto an edge over fiat currency. There’s the fact that some cryptos have a limited supply just like Bitcoin. Other coins are untraceable like Monero and are great for privacy and DeFi is decentralized and safe from government interference.

    But out of all features that will later prove crypto more superior than fiat, I think that low transfer fees is what will bring in new people initially and make crypto go mainstream.

    The reason I’m saying this is cause I’m seeing it in my own eyes. I live in a country where a lot of young people live abroad and help their families out with extra cash end of month. Western Union here is HELLA EXPENSIVE so I’m seeing a lot of people who have never had any encounter with crypto before open a wallet and start using platforms like Binance and E-Money cause of the ultra low fees and fast transfers.

    I’m not saying other features in crypto aren’t important. In fact I think limited supply and decentralization are much more important features. I’m just saying that low fees is what will most likely attract the largest number of people.

  2. Tax season's wrapped up and I'm ready to stick my money in some crypto. Problem is, no exchange seems to want my money.

    Usually I use coinbase, but my account has been frozen for a few months because my driver's license (State ID) expired and I have no way to renew it because I live abroad. California state IDs require an in-person appointment for renewals now. Coinbase doesn't accept passports for verification and I guess they think my identity might have changed or something since I first started using their product 5 years ago. So that seems ruled out, unless anyone has a magic solution for this.

    I have a kucoin account, but for some reason I don't have the option to deposit fiat. Seems like this might be related to my account being unverified. Can't verify because I'm a US citizen.

    Gemini told me my valid phone number wasn't valid when I was signing up.

    Paypal is evil.

    Crypto.com doesn't have a desktop exchange for US citizens. App only, and I'm kind of sketched out by that.

    The hell is going on here? Am I doing something wrong? Anyone else get around these types of obstacles? Lemme buy some damn crypto!

    UPDATE: After seeing it a bunch in the comments, I tried out Kraken and…success! They took my money! They even handled verification with a clean shaven webcam photo and a fully-bearded passport photo smoothly. Hallelujah! I bought a bit of ETH just now, so I hope you're all ready for the biggest crash of your lives. Thanks for all the tips, cheers guys.

  3. 📝 1. 99% of participants have never read a white paper

    We really just get shilled coins by people we trust, ape and pray. We just care about the money.

    💸 2. Most of DeFi is an unsustainable ponzi scheme

    And the people who are the best at it treat it like a game. Which it is. Staking those DeFi tokens for high APR only provide more time for the private investor to dump on you.

    📜 3. NFTs are the future

    And it will drive more crypto adoption more than dog coins ever will. But not with current form of mostly JPG.

    😔 4. A fully decentralized future is impossible.

    Most of the things we call decentralized today are not decentralized at all. We just trust people in crypto more than people out of it for some reason.

    😃 5. CZ (Binance CEO) has done a lot of good for the space

    And doesn’t get the credit he deserves because most redditors are from US where they don't have access to the real Binance. They're the best exchange BY FAR in 150+ countries.

    🎮 6. All current Play2Earn games are ponzi

    The closest thing we’ve ever had to a game with sustainable economy was RuneScape. They should be studying RuneScape as the bible.

    🏛️ 7. Big funds get shit on but we need them

    They funded so many projects when nobody wanted. Without them we wouldn’t have seen the massive explosion in crypto ecosystems over the past 2 years that enabled so many to make money. Yes they’ll dump on you, the good ones have earned it.

    😐 8. Crypto is not easy

    And if you ever find yourself thinking it is then it’s probably time to take some profit. You can put yourself in a position where crypto becomes easy, but that is extremely difficult to do.

    🐻 9. It’s easier to be bearish than bullish at all times.

    Bulls are brave while bears are cowards. Its easier to sound smart as a bear than it is as a bull which is why most mid-curves gravitate towards this mindset in all approaches towards life.

    🐦 10. Some of the smartest crypto people in the world are on twitter.

    It takes a lot of common sense and deep-level of thinking to figure out if they have their following because they’re smart, lucky or opportunistic. The best alpha in Twitter usually shitpost a lot.

    👽 11. You probably aren’t learning anything on reddit after the first few months

    You’re just looking for posts to validate your thoughts and stroke your ego. Go to Twitter and learn how to filter information. Knowing how to filter information will do you great in life, even outside crypto.

    🤬 12. Most influencers that claimed to be a successful traders are bullshit

    If there is someone who you truly think is rarely wrong at trading, it’s because they are being intentionally vague and misleading to portray themselves as something they aren’t. Do not trust these people.

    🐳 13. Knowing how to track Whales are the most valuable skill in crypto

    Go figure out which wallets know what they fuck they are doing and tail them rather than your favorite influencer.

    🎲 14. Leverage is the best way to lose everything.

    Crypto is either in easy or hard mode, nothing in between. Your goal is to survive hard mode to enjoy easy mode. Using leverage in hard mode ensures you will lose everything.

    👍 15. Most of you would be better off going BTC, ETH, and 1-3 alts

    Holding 20 different altcoins is no different than holding 3 different altcoins. Have conviction and consolidate your bets. You have to learn to control your greed on your own.

    Source: “40 truths about crypto” by cryptunez in Twitter. Adapted for reddit and shortened by me.

  4. Think about it. The approach was optimal, the team is incredible, the roadmap is flawless, and don't even get me started on tokenomics.

    Other coins are inferior and the people that like them are either as stupid as toasters or corporate shills hellbent on spending their entire lives trying to pump their own bags.

    Price is up? No fucking duh. Price is down? No sweat. It's a dip correction because the economy didn't allow it to break resistance and slam dunk a bull run.

    You chose correctly. You will be right in the end. Your bags will turn into rocket boosters and carry you into the land of riches. If only people would listen to your wisdom.

  5. It looks like UST and Luna have broken out of the death cycle and will survive this round, with Luna currently showing well over $0.90 on all exchanges. Today’s dip down to $0.66 gave huge arbitrage opportunities. A massive $2.6B of UST has been traded on Binance. Congratulations to those who made money and commiseration to those who sold.

    There as never been an algorithmic stable coin of this size before. If Luna can survive this it will be another big step forward in proving crypto is the future of our the global financial system (if any proof was still needed).

  6. This week we will talk about Bitcoin, bear markets, Luna and UST, Azukis, NFT affluenza… and more. Stream will be followed by Q&As.

    Look forward to chatting with all of you! The link to the stream / Reddit talk will go live in around 75 minutes.

  7. I have a love/hate relationship with social media, but it does a pretty decent job at gauging sentiments of the overall market. I've been on twitter, Reddit, Facebook (urrrrrggh), YouTube, and have seen a huge shift. Now people are yelling for drops, Bitcoin 10-20k, even lower.

    Reddit is interesting. It seems that when people say a coin is going to die, it pretends to die, then go straight to the moon (Doge, Shib, etc). Then when people say it's going to pump hardddd, it dumps (Chiliz, Luna, etc).

    Disclaimer: Not a financial adviser.

  8. Facebook is pushing so hard into the metaverse and web3 that they changed their name to meta. My question to you is this. Do they really think we're going to be falling for it? Do they think this will somehow salvage their reputation or we'll forget that Facebook is literally a blood sucking leech that has made a fortune off breaking our trust and selling our data? I don't know about you guys but my metaverse is on Polygon, an actual team that I know isn't going to dehumanize and sell me for profit. It's not going to be on meta and I don't think yours is going to be there either.

    One of the main reasons why I even got into this whole web3 shindig was to escape from the grip companies like Facebook and Google have on the internet right now. Not only does meta want to sell our data on the metaverse, they want a 50% cut of sales for doing it too. What a fucking joke. I personally think this is going to be the biggest flop in tech history. Can't wait to grab a big old tub of buttery popcorn and watch it all go up in flames.

    I understand some may argue that they are bringing eyes to the space but at what cost? I don't care what they do for the space, no one should be using a service that blatantly abuses your privacy. The little bastard literally said they're going to be tracking your facial expressions to “serve you better”, yeah okay bud. This is honestly quite scary and I hope it fails like the massive dumpster fire that it is.

    I'd like to remind everybody of some reasons why you may have gotten into the blockchain. Privacy, anonymity and security for me, Facebook's metaverse and Facebook as a whole does not fit into this space. It is not welcome here.

  9. November was undoubtedly a very euphoric month for Crypto. Bitcoin at 69k and most importantly the big metaverse move from Facebook that made nearly every metaverse crypto explode to like +100%. And now even META is struggling themselves as they made an all in bet and promises and marketing on a project they won't get ready for a long time.

    Same about most Cryptos. Most don't have the metaverse ready and likely won't for a long time if they even survive the market for that long. Others who has some kind of a “metaverse” ready or at least said to do so were a complete joke. The best example is MANA, so much pumpung into the top 40 for such a shitty project.

    It's clear that all those project were based on just some words and heavy marketing. Even if they then fit the hype it simple was not sustainable. That's why I like a bear market, it filters some illusive projects against others with better utility.

  10. I'm starting to meta hedge myself, just when I think about it's great time go all in I just remind myself I'm no financial guru or Warren buffet so that instinct to go in is probably shared by many sheep like myself therefore going under 20k is pretty much guaranteed so have to wait even more till I start actually bored of crypto getting dead and then hedging and going all in. It will be like the early 2019 when all the discussions were dead. I'm truly of the belief there are still too many greedy people like myself waiting to jump in right at lows of 20k because it's nice for idiot gamblers like me to see round number go up and I don't even have really big money to speculate with and yet I still think it could be easy money! Hedging myself I truly think this is not unpopular opinion here and we are all a product of our environment and well the environment here is still despite all the meme about it crashing and super bear market it still leaves lots of degenerates with cash to burn! Therefore I assume markets are not done bleeding degenerates! any thoughts ?

  11. It immediately reminded me of the oft used statement on this subreddit. “Sir this is a casino,” and I never really thought that could be be true until my buddy explained his simple reasons. For crypto, it’s a gamble I get it – ergo, it’s casino like.

    But America is a casino. Everyone that comes here has dreams of getting rich, but most that came end up poor kicking their dreams s down the road in lieu of trying to survive as their main function here.

    So all in all, “sir this is a casino” is fucking right. To quote the other geniuses here. “No one knows fuck and about shit,” or is it shit about fuck. I forgot. Have a great week community!

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