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The $28K – $30K decisive demand zone and the channel’s mid-line have served as reliable support for the price in the past few days, leading to a 13% rebound. In this analysis, we take a look at the possible scenarios going forward.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

In case of a bullish rally, the following primary resistance levels for bitcoin will be $34K and $37K. The RSI has broken above its descending trendline and is steadily climbing around 50%. At the same time, the breakout acted as a catalyst, pushing bitcoin’s price higher. Nevertheless, an RSI value of 50 implies an equilibrium between bulls and bears in terms of market control.

Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

This chart demonstrates a red pattern consisting of Bitcoin’s price action back in May 2021 when it crashed to $29K, plus its current price.

In May 2021, a clear Wyckoff accumulation pattern was seen, which led to a rally towards a new ATH at around $65K. The current price pattern is similar to June 2021’s capitulation/accumulation event.

Currently, Bitcoin has rallied and broke the prior equal highs grabbing the resting liquidity (Buy stops). However, the most probable scenario seems to be a cascade to register a new lower low, completing the Wyckoff pattern and the final capitulation in the mid-term. When the final capitulation occurs, the market can expect a recent healthy bullish move toward higher price channels.

btcchart_2
Source: TradingView

Onchain Analysis

By Shayan

The Sum Coin Age Distribution (12month-18month old coins) from CryptoQuant is projected alongside the price of Bitcoin in this chart. With UTXO data, the Sum Coin Age Distribution (SCA Distribution) depicts the distribution of long-term Holders and short-term holders. If the long-term SCA Distribution ratio rises, it could mean that the coin’s future value will be higher than its current value, which is a bullish indication for the price.

The SCA metric has surged and reached levels that haven’t been achieved since 2015 and 2019 market bottoms. Each time the metric soared to this level, Bitcoin registered a bottom, initiating a new bullish rally.

btcchart_3
Source: TradingView

5 thoughts on “Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Struggles to Maintain Gains, is $30K Retest Inbound?

  1. Hey guys, I have a new company called Cryptopinions and just wanted to see who would be interested before I sank a large sum of cash into making the website experience. The scripting and coding have already been done since I wanted to challenge myself to see how it could be done.

    What we do is crawl the internet for articles on the top cryptocurrencies. We then take those articles and process them using AI to determine if the article is positive, negative, or neutral. We only source articles from well-respected/regulated sources. So places like CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, this sub (only well received and highly engaged posts), and many other places are sourced.

    For example, let’s say that you are looking at the list of coins that we track and you choose Ethereum. We would provide current social sentiment data and price data for that coin. We would also provide historical social sentiment data alongside the historical price data.

    Along with crawling the internet for the social sentiment on each coin, we will also provide a more general fear/greed index that compiles the social sentiment for the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

    In order to keep our commitment to complete honesty and transparency, we would also provide links to the articles that were used in determining scores for the coins, and the score given to that individual article. We don't want to completely replace your research, just make it a lot easier and centralized!

    Our goal is to be completely hands-off when it comes to the processing of data so as to eliminate any potential for human bias. We also want to help keep higher market cap coins honest. So if you see a coin that you’re not sure about and it has a higher market cap, you could come to us to see how the interwebs feel about that coin and go through the articles yourself to make up your mind.

    The individual coin sentiment data and article data would be locked behind a subscription since this stuff is surprisingly expensive to run and keep up to date. We will also use those funds to expand our search for articles since some websites (*cough* *cough* Twitter) charge an unholy amount of money to access their post data.

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  3. Tldr. Partner thinks Bryan Legend can do no wrong. Nothing he has said re his thoughts and opinions about the devaluing of the absolute useless,no utility rebase coin has panned out. Nothing will convince him he’s going to either do a rug pull, continue to withdraw for “marketing” or that the price will drop to zero. Tried to point out the obvious etc multiple times but he’s insistent its not a cult. Absolutely follows cult behavior in my opinion

    Any tips? Has anyone else gotten people to successfully realize that certain projects are scams ?

    PS this guy (BL) has done this stuff with multiple other projects. Somehow 1000s of people keep getting duped.

  4. This bear market will probably last 6-12 months more, the downtrend is not even the worst part, that only lasted 1 year in 2018 and in this case it might last until the end of 2022, or a little bit more, the worst part is the waiting while Bitcoin is in a accumulating zone for months going sideways , 2 years from December 2018 until December 2020, with FUD news, the uncertainty, not knowing if we have bottomed, if it will ever recover again, if you're a fool for wasting time and money in this… That will probably happen at least for 1 year or even 2 years, 2023 and part of 2024. If you're ready, start DCAing now. But the path is not easy, it's frustrating and it will test you. And you don't even know of it will be worth, just like I didn't in 2018-2019

  5. I used to be really optimistic about cryptocurrencies, I mean how could you not? When I started investing in bitcoin, it was all about this idea of gaining control over your wealth, without having to rely on the banks and governments. It was presented to me like a safe, decentralised and private blockchain. A dream becoming a reality is what it was.

    For me, the point was to store my asset in crypto so they can remain safe and hold their value, I absolutly loved the idea of it not being tied to my identity, because then you dont have to worry about data breach, id theft or social engineering scammers. Just need to put it in a hardware wallet and you've created an almost impenetrable digital fortress for your key. I never wanted to make money out of it, making capital gains was a bonus sure but I would have been just fine without.

    What happenned then is people got greedy. They saw there was money to be made and they started pushing for public adoption, which inevitably caught the eye of the governments. And you know… governments did what they always do, they ruined everything. Now we're stuck with VERY invasives KYC policies and fucking taxes on crypto, meaning you pretty much have to declare everything, xmr was delisted by most cex, they even shut down tornado cash for god sake! At this point, is crypto really any different than fiat? Fuck Im becoming bitter…

    TLDR : I hate everything crypto has become

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